Curious Political Minds - Predicting US Presidential Elections
For students applying for politics-related degree courses or simply with a mind for politics, it is valuable to have an understanding of US Politics, the principles and structure, as well as in comparison to the UK system. In this Curious Political Minds digest, we aim to stimulate a keen interest in US Politics using Allan Lichtman‘s book, The Keys to the White House (1981) as a centrepiece for an examination of a presidential candidate’s rise to power and how we can determine the outcome of presidential elections in the United States.
Before we start, try to get to grips with the four main principles involved in the study of US Politics detailed below:
On to Elections
Allan Lichtman – The Keys to the White House (1981)
Although published 40 years ago now, Lichtman's book has stood the test of time. In The Keys to the White House, Lichtman puts forward thirteen factors that determine US Presidential elections. These range from the charisma of the person sitting for President, their party's performance in mid-terms, and multiple other factors.
Lichtman's work is a fantastic entry point for anyone interested in understanding US elections and US politics more broadly. Why? Because Lichtman introduces us to the American institution that is presidential primaries (where parties vote on who their nominee will be). With this knowledge, it becomes far easier to appreciate the importance of primary contests in American politics.
The book sheds light on such iron laws of politics as, "it's the economy, stupid", a well-known quip by James Carville, a strategist in Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against George H. W. Bush, which emphasises the importance of GDP growth rate as a parameter in the re-election of a President. Carville hung a sign in Clinton’s campaign headquarters that read: “1. Change vs. more of the same. 2. The economy, stupid. 3. Don't forget health care.” In a time of economic upheaval, Carville aimed to remind the campaign team what the country and its voters cared about and offered a positive message of growth and recovery that would eventually carry Clinton to victory.
For those interested in UK politics, the book also offers insights into how the possible presidentialisation of the British political scene may alter our discourse and elections in the future. When thinking about this, try to differentiate between presidentialisation as applied to the British Prime Minister and their personal style/ charisma vs. the institutional structure the office is part of (the British Parliamentary System). What is the difference between a Prime Minister and a President? Can Britain have a presidential system if it does not have a presidential chief executive? How could the possible presidentialisation alter future elections?
Lichtman's model's curious feature is that only a majority of the 13 keys is needed to determine which party wins the election. The Keys is a book that provokes lengthy discussion about the nature of presidential candidates' charisma and popularity. When you appreciate the factors that build the model, you begin to have a keener interest in US politics. Although the next election is years away, Lichtman's keys are already relevant. Lichtman has an impressive record of accuracy: having only got the hotly contested 2000 election wrong (where 500 votes decided the winner out of tens of millions).
The 13 Keys
For Further Exploration:
To gain more understanding of how Obama rose to power, consider watching By the People: The Election of Barack Obama, a 2009 documentary about Obama's rapid rise to the top
For a look at the role of primaries in Congressional elections, watch Knock Down the House, a recent film charting the movement behind Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the youngest woman ever elected to the US Congress
Thinking Tasks
What other models are there for predicting US elections? Does anyone have a more accurate model than Lichtman?
At what point in 2020 did Lichtman’s model predict Trump losing (did it predict he would win at any time?)
How does Lichtman’s model compare to political scientist, Helmut Norpoth’s Primary Model for predicting elections?
Why did Trump come so close to defying Lichtman’s model (which predicted he would lose) in 2020?
Should the keys be weighted equally?
Are 2016 and 2020 exceptions to the keys, or do they prove Lichtman correct?
Are you considering Politics as a degree?
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